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爱游戏体育app合作罗马:黄薇,Superstition and Risk Taking: Evidence from “Zodiac Year” Beliefs in China,《MANAGEMENT SCIENCE》,2023.09

论文名称:Superstition and Risk Taking: Evidence from “Zodiac Year” Beliefs in China

作者:Fisman, R;黄薇;Ning, B;Pan, Y;Qiu, JP;Wang, YX

刊名:MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

发表时间:2023.09

We show that superstitions—beliefs without scientific grounding—impact the investment and risk-taking of Chinese firms. We focus on widely held beliefs in bad luck during one’s “zodiac year,” which occurs on a 12-year cycle around a person’s birth year, to study superstitions and risk taking. We first show a direct correspondence between zodiac year and risk taking via survey data: respondents are two percentage points more likely to favor no-risk investments if queried during their zodiac year. Turning to corporate decision making, we find that return volatility declines in the chairman’s zodiac year, suggesting a reduction in risk taking overall. Focusing on specific types of risk taking, investment in R&D and corporate acquisitions both decline during the chairman’s zodiac year; returns around acquisition announcements are also lower, suggesting real allocative consequences of zodiac year beliefs.

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